Venting and gas-system constraint. Critical capture-before-release opportunity; a global R/P ranking is unsupported. [USGS_He] [ETH26]

2050 demand

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

Venting transfers recoverable reservoir helium to extremely dilute air; capture before release is much easier than atmospheric recovery. Closed cryogenic loops retain an operating inventory; lifting, purging, leak testing and uncollected boil-off lose economic concentration. [USGS_He] [ETH26]

Lifting-gas use, not measured global venting share. [USGS_He]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Gas reservoirs and gas-processing infrastructure dominate supply; dedicated nonhydrocarbon helium projects can reduce dependence on natural-gas sales. [USGS_He] [ETH26]

Substitutability

No practical substitute for the lowest-temperature liquid-helium applications; cryocoolers reduce makeup needs. Other gases substitute for selected lifting, shielding and inerting uses. [USGS_He] [ETH26]

Ore-grade trend

No global concentration time series verified. Reservoir He concentration and gas flow govern economics; declining gas output can strand helium irrespective of remaining gas-in-place. [USGS_He] [ETH26]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: United States; 42.6%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. [USGS_He]

Refining: Not verified; Not verified%
Do not infer refinery shares from mine shares.

Reserve additions / resource conversion

Nonhydrocarbon discoveries, capture at existing gas plants, storage and reliquefaction can expand available supply. No defensible century-scale addition forecast. [USGS_He] [ETH26]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 91.2; sensitivity 66.2–100. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 4, 'recovery_barrier': 3, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 4}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

USGS footnote: 27.737 m3 at 15 C, 101.325 kPa = 0.0047 t. Volume not liquid volume. [USGS_He]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

Short reported reserve inventory; mixed retention. Pressure combines a roughly two-decade static inventory, host dependence and dispersed electronics; recoverable precious-metal stocks materially moderate it. [USGS_Ag]

2050 demand

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

Bullion, jewelry and large industrial catalysts preserve concentrated stocks. Fine electrical contacts, PV metallization, brazing and biocidal uses create collection or separation losses; industrial use is not synonymous with irreversible loss. [USGS_Ag]

Historical estimate explicitly described as poorly documented; low confidence. [UNEP10]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Much primary silver is a coproduct of lead-zinc, copper and gold mines. Host mine economics constrain response to silver prices. [USGS_Ag]

Substitutability

Copper/aluminum and lower silver loadings can reduce some electrical and PV demand; performance, reliability and manufacturing changes limit substitution. No universal substitute. [USGS_Ag]

Ore-grade trend

No consistent global Ag-grade time series verified. Host ore throughput and recovery matter alongside primary silver-mine grade. [USGS_Ag]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: Mexico; 24.2%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. [USGS_Ag]

Refining: Not verified; Not verified%
Do not infer refinery shares from mine shares.

Reserve additions / resource conversion

Host base-metal discoveries and mine expansions add silver inventories. Exploration and classification changes can raise reserves without an equivalent newly discovered mass. [USGS_Ag]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 50; sensitivity 25–75. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 2, 'recovery_barrier': 2, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 2}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

Reported contained-element tonnes; primary recovered output. [USGS_Ag]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

Short reported reserve inventory; dispersion and recovery constraint. Recovering small solder and coating masses matters as much as reserve expansion. [USGS_Sn] [ITA]

2050 demand

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

Solder joints, tinplate and chemicals distribute small masses through larger products. Bronze and segregated solder scrap can remain recoverable; tin in steel recycling may become an unwanted residual rather than functional tin supply. [USGS_Sn] [ITA]

Solder 52%, chemicals 16%, tinplate 11%: use shares, not measured loss shares. [ITA]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Dedicated cassiterite mining is important, with polymetallic coproduct streams. Smelting access and ore provenance constrain supply independently of crustal availability. [USGS_Sn] [ITA]

Substitutability

Tin-free packaging and alternative materials replace selected uses. Lead-free electronic solder has limited drop-in substitution, though designs and joining technologies can change. [USGS_Sn] [ITA]

Ore-grade trend

No defensible global grade trend verified. Mature placers, underground deposits and new mines have different grade and recovery trajectories. [USGS_Sn] [ITA]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: China; 24.5%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. [USGS_Sn]

Refining: Not verified; Not verified%
Do not infer refinery shares from mine shares.

Reserve additions / resource conversion

Extensive resources and exploration can replenish reserves, conditional on investment, permitting and metallurgical recovery; not a timed exhaustion trajectory. [USGS_Sn] [ITA]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 60; sensitivity 35–85. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 3, 'recovery_barrier': 2, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 2}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

Reported contained-element tonnes; primary recovered output. [USGS_Sn]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

Short reported reserve inventory; chemical dispersion. High-priority combination of weak chemical-use recovery and concentrated primary supply. [USGS_Sb]

2050 demand

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

Lead-acid alloy loops retain some antimony. Flame-retardant additives, pigments and dispersed chemical uses often enter mixed waste or residues; recycling lead does not prove complete functional Sb recovery. [USGS_Sb]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Dedicated antimony ores and gold/lead coproducts coexist. Antimonial lead recycling depends on lead-battery collection and alloy demand. [USGS_Sb]

Substitutability

Alternative flame-retardant systems and other alloy formulations substitute in some uses with redesign and performance tradeoffs. [USGS_Sb]

Ore-grade trend

No global grade series verified. Deposits differ widely; recovering antimony from host residues can matter more than a global mean ore grade. [USGS_Sb]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: China; 36.4%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. [USGS_Sb]

Refining: Not verified; Not verified%
Do not infer refinery shares from mine shares.

Reserve additions / resource conversion

Restarts, new mines and host-ore recovery may add supply. Economic, environmental and processing conditions determine conversion; no global numeric projection. [USGS_Sb]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 75; sensitivity 50–100. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 3, 'recovery_barrier': 3, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 3}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

Reported contained-element tonnes; primary recovered output. [USGS_Sb]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

Short reported reserve inventory; coating losses and durable stocks. Large structural stocks offer secondary supply after service lives; coating corrosion and weak dust recovery remain losses. [USGS_Zn] [IZA]

2050 demand

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

Buildings, galvanized steel and brass accumulate substantial stocks. Corrosion intentionally consumes coatings; rubber and fertilizer uses disperse zinc. EAF dust can concentrate zinc for recovery when collection and treatment exist. [USGS_Zn] [IZA]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Primary zinc ores commonly carry lead, silver, indium or germanium. Their availability depends on Zn throughput, smelter routing and whether trace metals are actually recovered. [USGS_Zn] [IZA]

Substitutability

Alternative coatings, stainless steel, aluminum and engineering redesign can reduce some uses. Zinc has essential biological functions with no elemental substitute. [USGS_Zn] [IZA]

Ore-grade trend

No global harmonized grade time series verified; mine depletion and new ore bodies vary. Reprocessing dust and residues changes the effective feed mix. [USGS_Zn] [IZA]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: China; 31.5%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. [USGS_Zn]

Refining: Not verified; Not verified%
Do not infer refinery shares from mine shares.

Reserve additions / resource conversion

1.9 Gt identified resources exceed reported reserves but need economically justified conversion. Mine capacity and smelter access, not reserve tonnage alone, determine output. [USGS_Zn] [IZA]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 50; sensitivity 25–75. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 2, 'recovery_barrier': 2, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 2}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

Reported contained-element tonnes; primary recovered output. [USGS_Zn]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

Byproduct recovery bottleneck; reserve inventory unquantified. Potentially important PV stock, but collection timing and copper-refinery systems govern secondary and primary availability. [USGS_Te]

2050 demand

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

CdTe photovoltaic modules retain tellurium for decades if collected. Thermoelectrics and alloys retain material but at low concentrations; uncollected modules and mixed smelter residues can lose it from the functional cycle. [USGS_Te]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

More than 90% historically comes from electrolytic-copper anode slimes. Copper made by routes without recoverable anode slimes does not automatically yield tellurium. [USGS_Te]

Substitutability

Other PV technologies can replace CdTe at the system level; alternative thermoelectrics and alloy additions have performance tradeoffs. [USGS_Te]

Ore-grade trend

Host Cu mineralogy, Te deportment and anode-slime recovery are key. No global Te ore-grade trend verified; Cu grade alone is insufficient. [USGS_Te]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: China; 80%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. [USGS_Te]

Refining: China; 80%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. This is the same reported processing stage, not a second independent observation. [USGS_Te]

Reserve additions / resource conversion

Additional recovery circuits and better recovery from existing slimes may expand supply without equivalent new host mining. Legacy inferred Te reserve figures are rejected. [USGS_Te]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 58.8; sensitivity 33.8–83.8. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 2, 'recovery_barrier': 3, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 2}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

Reported contained-element tonnes; primary recovered output. [USGS_Te]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

Byproduct dependency; diffuse product stocks. Thin-film collection and host-system recovery are stronger warning signals than an unsupported run-out ratio. [USGS_In]

2050 demand

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

ITO thin films and semiconductor devices retain indium physically but at low loading in mixed products. Spent sputtering targets are concentrated manufacturing scrap; their recycling does not establish good end-of-life display recovery. [USGS_In]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Most recovery is from sphalerite zinc processing; indium-bearing deposits may not be routed to a capable recovery refinery. [USGS_In]

Substitutability

Conductive oxides, polymers, carbon materials and metal nanowires can replace some ITO applications; optical and electrical specifications restrict substitutes. [USGS_In]

Ore-grade trend

Recoverable Zn deposits contain less than 1 to 100 ppm In. No global trend verified; trace deportment and refinery recovery dominate supply responsiveness. [USGS_In]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: China; 69.1%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. [USGS_In]

Refining: China; 69.1%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. This is the same reported processing stage, not a second independent observation. [USGS_In]

Reserve additions / resource conversion

Improved zinc-residue processing, recovery investments and production-scrap loops can expand output. Refinery capacity is not geological reserves. [USGS_In]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 77.5; sensitivity 52.5–93.8. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 3, 'recovery_barrier': 4, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 2}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

Reported contained-element tonnes; primary recovered output. [USGS_In]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

Byproduct bottleneck with major data opacity. High uncertainty itself is material. No mass bubble or reserve-life point is fabricated. [USGS_Ge]

2050 demand

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

Large infrared lenses can be recovered and reprocessed. Fiber-optic doping, semiconductor devices and catalysts put small masses into dispersed systems; factory scrap loops differ from recovery of retired products. [USGS_Ge]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Germanium is recovered from selected zinc/lead-zinc-copper ores and lignite-related streams. Most host material does not necessarily enter a Ge-recovery circuit. [USGS_Ge]

Substitutability

Silicon, GaAs and chalcogenide glass substitute in selected electronics/IR uses. Optical windows and performance specifications constrain replacement. [USGS_Ge]

Ore-grade trend

No reliable global production or grade series verified. Mineralogy, host concentrate routing and residue chemistry dominate recoverability. [USGS_Ge]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: China; Not verified%
Leading producer, no reliable global denominator. [USGS_Ge]

Refining: China; Not verified%
Leading producer, no reliable global denominator. This is the same reported processing stage, not a second independent observation. [USGS_Ge]

Reserve additions / resource conversion

Tailings and host-processing recovery projects could improve supply; unreported inventories and output preclude numeric reserve-conversion forecasts. [USGS_Ge]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 68.8; sensitivity 43.8–93.8. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 3, 'recovery_barrier': 3, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 2}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

Reported contained-element tonnes; primary recovered output. [USGS_Ge]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

Refining concentration and weak product recycling. Primary low-purity production is overwhelmingly Chinese; large geological occurrence does not remove refinery dependence. [USGS_Ga]

2050 demand

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

GaAs/GaN wafer scrap is recoverable in concentrated manufacturing streams. End-use chips and LEDs contain very small Ga quantities; ordinary electronic-waste collection is not proof of functional Ga recycling. [USGS_Ga]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Predominantly an alumina/bauxite-processing byproduct, with some zinc residues. Recovery installations and purification capacity constrain output more directly than bauxite scarcity. [USGS_Ga]

Substitutability

Silicon and SiGe replace selected GaAs uses; GaN/GaAs retain performance advantages in demanding radiofrequency and power applications. [USGS_Ga]

Ore-grade trend

Bauxite averages about 50 ppm Ga per USGS. No global temporal trend verified; Bayer-liquor recovery and high-purity conversion are controlling steps. [USGS_Ga]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: China; 99%
Narrative 99%; rounding table China and world both 900 t must not become exactly 100%. [USGS_Ga]

Refining: China; 99%
Narrative 99%; rounding table China and world both 900 t must not become exactly 100%. This is the same reported processing stage, not a second independent observation. [USGS_Ga]

Reserve additions / resource conversion

Installing recovery at alumina plants can convert host-contained potential into supply. >1 Mt contained Ga is not a recoverable reserve or an immediately available feedstock. [USGS_Ga]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 77.5; sensitivity 52.5–93.8. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 3, 'recovery_barrier': 4, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 2}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

Reported contained-element tonnes; primary recovered output. [USGS_Ga]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

Host-processing constraint with strong specialist recycling. Very small tonnage and high value support targeted loops; supply remains coupled to host production. [USGS_Re]

2050 demand

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

Engine superalloys and Pt-Re catalysts can retain recoverable concentrated rhenium. Closed catalyst loops and segregated engine scrap are valuable; oxidation, unsegregated alloys and unrecovered processing residues cause losses. [USGS_Re]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Closely coupled to molybdenum in porphyry copper ores and selected copper ores; capture of roasting/smelter residues is essential. Host output cannot be treated as independently adjustable Re supply. [USGS_Re]

Substitutability

Lower-Re/reduced-Re superalloys and alternative catalyst systems can reduce use; demanding turbine conditions limit direct substitution. [USGS_Re]

Ore-grade trend

No global rhenium-grade series verified. Host deposit mineralogy, Mo concentrate routing and flue/residue capture determine recovered output. [USGS_Re]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: Chile; 37%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. [USGS_Re]

Refining: Not verified; Not verified%
Do not infer refinery shares from mine shares.

Reserve additions / resource conversion

Expand residue capture and recycling; country reserves are incomplete and global reserves are described only as Large. Do not divide a partial country total as if global. [USGS_Re]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 25; sensitivity 0–50. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 1, 'recovery_barrier': 1, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 1}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

Reported contained-element tonnes; primary recovered output. [USGS_Re]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

Mining/refining concentration; recoverable engineering stock. Better collection moderates geological pressure, but wear losses and processing concentration remain. [USGS_W]

2050 demand

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

Carbide tools, heavy alloys and industrial parts preserve concentrated tungsten. Tool wear and small dispersed components are genuine losses; segregated hardmetal scrap permits direct or chemical recycling. [USGS_W]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Dedicated scheelite/wolframite mining with coproducts; chemical conversion and carbide manufacturing concentrate downstream capabilities. [USGS_W]

Substitutability

Ceramics, tool steels and other carbides substitute for some tasks, often with performance losses. Tungsten demand is application-specific. [USGS_W]

Ore-grade trend

No global grade time series verified. Ore mineralogy, beneficiation and recovery govern the feasibility of new deposits. [USGS_W]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: China; 78.8%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. [USGS_W]

Refining: Not verified; Not verified%
Do not infer refinery shares from mine shares.

Reserve additions / resource conversion

New mines, restarts and improved beneficiation can convert resources. Reported world reserves are a lower bound and vary in national classification. [USGS_W]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 35; sensitivity 10–60. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 2, 'recovery_barrier': 1, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 1}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

Reported contained-element tonnes; primary recovered output. [USGS_W]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

Large reserve inventory; essential nutrient dispersion. Priority is loss prevention and nutrient recovery, despite a long static rock R/P ratio. [USGS_P] [OPF6] [OPF7]

2050 demand

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

Fertilizer moves concentrated rock phosphorus into soils, crops, manure, sewage and waters. Soil legacy P can remain agronomically useful but is not equivalent to recoverable industrial inventory; aquatic dispersal is difficult to reverse. [USGS_P] [OPF6] [OPF7]

Share of mined phosphorus used as fertilizer. Exposure to diffuse cycle; not measured permanent loss. [OPF6]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Phosphate is primarily mined deliberately. Fluorine and potentially uranium recovery are coupled to phosphate beneficiation and phosphoric-acid process choices. [USGS_P] [OPF6] [OPF7]

Substitutability

No substitute for phosphorus in biological nutrition. Better use efficiency, manure reuse and residue recovery reduce primary demand without replacing the element. [USGS_P] [OPF6] [OPF7]

Ore-grade trend

No harmonized global grade trend verified. P2O5 grade, contaminants and beneficiation losses must be tracked by deposit; lower grade increases rock movement per unit nutrient. [USGS_P] [OPF6] [OPF7]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: China; 44%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. [USGS_P]

Refining: Not verified; Not verified%
Do not infer refinery shares from mine shares.

Rounded rock tonnage; no inference about annual production control. [USGS_P]

Reserve additions / resource conversion

Large resources do not eliminate regional availability, contaminants, water or processing constraints. Recycling soil/waste P and converting geological resources are different interventions. [USGS_P] [OPF6] [OPF7]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 85; sensitivity 60–100. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 4, 'recovery_barrier': 3, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 3}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

ASSUMED 30% P2O5 in marketable rock, sensitivity 28–32%, converted stoichiometrically to P. Not a measured world-average assay. [USGS_P]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

Chemical dissipation and limited closed recovery. Economic dilution, not destruction of fluorine atoms, is the central loss mechanism. [USGS_F]

2050 demand

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

Fluxes and chemical manufacture send fluorine into slags, gypsum, salts and emissions-control residues. Refrigerants and fluoropolymers retain some stocks, but recapturing elemental F economically depends on chemistry and collection. [USGS_F]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Fluorspar mining is primary; fluorosilicic-acid recovery depends on phosphate processing. Aluminum fluoride and HF systems create additional recovery opportunities. [USGS_F]

Substitutability

Alternative fluxes and refrigerant/chemical designs reduce selected needs. Fluorine-dependent properties cannot always be replaced without redesign. [USGS_F]

Ore-grade trend

No global fluorspar-grade trend verified. Acid-grade product requirements, impurities and beneficiation yields govern usable supply. [USGS_F]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: China; 60%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. [USGS_F]

Refining: Not verified; Not verified%
Do not infer refinery shares from mine shares.

Reserve additions / resource conversion

New mines/restarts and phosphate-derived fluorine can expand supply. The latter is a host-contained equivalent, not immediately extractable fluorspar reserves. [USGS_F]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 85; sensitivity 60–100. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 4, 'recovery_barrier': 3, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 3}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

ASSUMED 90% CaF2 average, sensitivity 80–97%, converted stoichiometrically to F. Not a measured world-average assay. [USGS_F]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

High extraction intensity and demand growth; strong stock retention. Century-scale tonnage and development pace dominate; urban stocks are valuable but become scrap only after product retirement. [USGS_Cu] [BHP26] [IEA25]

2050 demand

BHP outlook says >50 Mt global demand. Not mine production; producer interest noted. [BHP26]

IEA STEPS, p.108; excludes direct-use scrap. Not directly comparable with BHP >50 Mt broader-demand outlook. Do not present 37–50 as a statistical range. [IEAPDF]

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

Wires, buildings, motors and grid equipment form large anthropogenic stocks. Collection, sorting and refining can preserve copper function; alloys, tiny electronics and uncollected waste create losses and downcycling. [USGS_Cu] [BHP26] [IEA25]

Historical in-use stock range. Do not multiply by current population to invent a current global stock. [UNEP10]

IEA STEPS p.100 recycling comparison. Not recycled content, EOL recycling rate or guaranteed reduction in all mine output. [IEAPDF]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Large dedicated Cu mining sector, often with valuable coproducts including Mo, Ag, Re and Te; process-route changes alter byproduct recoverability. [USGS_Cu] [BHP26] [IEA25]

Substitutability

Aluminum replaces copper in some conductors with changes in size and joining; fiber replaces signal transmission, not power delivery. Performance limits remain. [USGS_Cu] [BHP26] [IEA25]

Ore-grade trend

Declining grades in mature mines and increasing complexity are cited by BHP; no single defensible world decline percentage is assigned. Reserve tonnage growth can coexist with higher energy/water use. [USGS_Cu] [BHP26] [IEA25]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: Chile; 23%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. [USGS_Cu]

Refining: China; 48.3%
14 Mt out of 29 Mt; refining and mining denominators differ. [USGS_Cu]

Reserve additions / resource conversion

Geological resources are much larger than reserves, but long lead times, costs and infrastructure constrain conversion. Secondary supply can reduce mine requirements without equivalent newly mined reserve additions. [USGS_Cu] [BHP26] [IEA25]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 25; sensitivity 0–50. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 1, 'recovery_barrier': 1, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 1}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

Reported contained-element tonnes; primary recovered output. [USGS_Cu]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

Rapid-demand and processing pressure; growing recoverable stock. Long current R/P is compatible with near-term bottlenecks under fast demand growth. Future battery recycling should not be counted before scrap exists. [USGS_Li]

2050 demand

IEA STEPS, p.120. APS about 30% higher; NZE a further 20% higher. Elemental lithium, not LCE. [IEAPDF]

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

Batteries accumulate lithium stocks that can be recovered if collected and processed for Li, not only other cathode metals. Ceramics, glass and lubricants disperse Li; rapid stock growth delays availability of end-of-life scrap. [USGS_Li]

IEA STEPS p.100 recycling comparison. Not recycled content, EOL recycling rate or guaranteed reduction in all mine output. [IEAPDF]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Deliberate brine and hard-rock extraction; chemical conversion to battery grade is a separate bottleneck. Lithium is not principally a byproduct constraint. [USGS_Li]

Substitutability

Alternative battery chemistries and other storage systems reduce selected uses. LFP removes nickel/cobalt, not lithium. System substitution depends on energy density and duty cycle. [USGS_Li]

Ore-grade trend

No unified global grade trend across brines, pegmatites and clays. Concentration, impurities, water use and recovery yield differ; resource tonnage alone is insufficient. [USGS_Li]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: Australia; 31.7%
Calculated from rounded table values; same caveats as production. Re location is recovery country including imported residues; He US includes Canadian feed; Te/Li denominators omit output. [USGS_Li]

Refining: Not verified; Not verified%
Do not infer refinery shares from mine shares.

Reserve additions / resource conversion

Resource expansion is large, but direct extraction, clay processing and brine projects require demonstrated recovery and economics. Mine output already differs from demand and inventories. [USGS_Li]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 50; sensitivity 25–75. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 2, 'recovery_barrier': 2, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 2}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

Reported contained-element tonnes; primary recovered output. [USGS_Li]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.

Fuel-cycle constraint; retained stocks plus irreversible fission. Do not label all mined uranium dissipated, and do not treat all spent fuel as readily reusable energy. [NEA26] [WNAFUEL] [WNASTOCK]

2050 demand

Low/high nuclear-capacity growth reactor requirements; not a probabilistic interval or mine extraction. [NEA26]

Separate 0.75×, 1× and 2× sensitivities are included in the dataset. For materials without measured current demand, these use primary output as an explicitly labeled primary-equivalent proxy.

Cumulative primary extraction-equivalent, 2026 to start-2126

Recovered primary output, not all ore moved; no future secondary flow counted as newly extracted. For Ge only normalized scenario indices are available.

Recycling

Comparable current global EOL rate: not verified. The following metrics retain their own denominators and dates.

Qualitative pathways are documented below; no globally comparable rate is assigned.

Dissipative use and retained stocks

Global dissipative share and current retained-stock fraction: not quantified.

Fission irreversibly transforms the atoms that fission; most natural uranium feed is retained in enrichment tails or used fuel. Used-fuel uranium and tails are physical stocks with isotope, radiological, policy and processing barriers to reuse. [NEA26] [WNAFUEL] [WNASTOCK]

Enrichment tails, not in-use finished products; potential future feed, not currently equivalent to natural uranium demand. [WNAFUEL]

Derived 42,000 + 40,000 + 65,000 t inventories. Not complete global anthropogenic stock or all spent fuel. [WNASTOCK]

Typical used fuel is about 96% uranium. Not 96% of original natural-U feed and not a recycling rate; tails are another stock. [WNAFUEL]

Byproduct/coproduct dependency

Dedicated uranium mines dominate with some coproduct recovery. Conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication and reprocessing are distinct system constraints. [NEA26] [WNAFUEL] [WNASTOCK]

Substitutability

Other energy sources can replace nuclear electricity. Breeding and alternate fuel cycles may greatly extend uranium utilization, but are not assumed deployed at scale in these scenarios. [NEA26] [WNAFUEL] [WNASTOCK]

Ore-grade trend

High-grade deposits, low-grade bulk mines and in-situ recovery are not comparable by one grade. No global temporal trend assigned; isotope utilization and enrichment tails also affect natural-U demand. [NEA26] [WNAFUEL] [WNASTOCK]

Geographic production and refining concentration

Production: Kazakhstan; 39%
WNA published rounded shares use its 60,213 t global total. NEA later reports 61,924 t. Keep WNA shares on their own denominator; do not splice country outputs onto NEA total. [WNAMINE]

Refining: Not verified; Not verified%
Do not infer refinery shares from mine shares.

Reserve additions / resource conversion

Cost-tier resources, exploration and investment can increase supply; NEA notes 15–20-year mine-development lead times. Breeders/reprocessing are scenario choices, not automatic reserve additions. [NEA26] [WNAFUEL] [WNASTOCK]

No verified global century-scale addition forecast. Dataset scenario gaps are required conversion, not predicted discoveries.

Visualization and confidence

Y = 42.5; sensitivity 17.5–67.5. Components: {'dispersion_exposure': 1, 'recovery_barrier': 3, 'loss_of_economic_recoverability': 1}. Analyst judgment; no measured loss percentage.

Reported contained-element tonnes; primary recovered output. [NEA26]

A=direct authoritative quantified estimate; B=bounded/partial estimate or source/basis caveat; C=historical evidence or qualitative synthesis; D=unavailable or conditional scenario. These rate evidence quality, not certainty of future outcomes.